Academic Papers

Here I shall list academic papers that I have published or have read as part of my research. There are many to come and it's a case of finding the time to put them here.

Lists of Citations

I present citations of some of the more prolific researchers in sports betting markets.

Edward O. Thorp

Football 

Leighton Vaughan Williams (to follow)

Sports Arbitrage

William T. Ziemba

AI applications

A paper resulting from my BSc project. Probably the last paper I shall write willingly, unless I am up for a Nobel Prize.

Tsang, E. P. K., Li, J., & Butler, J. M., (1998), "EDDIE Beats the Bookies". Software-Practice and Experience, 28-10, pp. 1033-1044.

Betting Market Efficiency

There are a myriad of papers on betting market efficiency and looking for inefficiencies from which to find an edge. I have one from my Alma Mater to start you off. More to come.

Can Punters win? Are UK betting markets on sporting events efficiently aggregating information? - Cadman, Andrew

Optimal Capital Growth (Kelly Criterion)

Make the most of the good-times, maximise your return on investment.

Kelly, J. 1956. A New Interpretation of the Information Rate, Bell System Technical Journal 1, 917–926.

Horse Racing

Place pricing models whilst an interesting mathematical diversion are of no use on Betfair though they still might work on tote markets.

Harville, D.A. (1973) Assigning probabilities to the outcomes of multi-entry competitions. Journal of the American Statistical Association 68, 312-316

Henery, R.J. (1981) Permutation probabilities as models for horse race. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 43, 86-91

Lo, V.S.Y. & Bacon-Shone, J. (2008) Approximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-entry Competitions by a Simple Method. Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets, 51-65. Elsevier

Stern, H.S. (2008) Estimating the Probabilities of the Outcomes of a Horse Race (Alternatives to the Harville Formulas). Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets. Hausch, Lo & Ziemba. 225-235.

Stern, H.S. (1990) Models for Distributions on Permutations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 85, No. 410 (June) : 558-564

Note - The papers in Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets can be found here -  http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=HX2xapyqENsC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false

2 comments:

  1. How then do you define which football team is the "best", if not by getting them to play and looking at the results?

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  2. I thought you were anti-sport?

    Anyway, there would have to be rule changes in football to create a greater likelihood of a significant score.

    Alter the offside rule, bigger goals etc.

    Snipper on the roof picking off players. Whatever it takes!

    I like Gaelic football's no offside approach by restricting movement in the goal keeping area. Maybe preventing the goal keeper from leaving the goal keeping area and out-field players from entering unless the ball is there.

    Getting a linesman to watch the line of offside and the ball simultaneously is a physical impossibility.

    The big problem is the fuddy-duddies in football. "No rule changes because there never has been". Well, there have. There was no offside in the beginning. No substitutes. Nor red and yellow cards. Nor forward passing.

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