Horse Racing - Citations

The sport of kings. Often the first sport that attracts people onto betting exchanges, horse racing offers many routes into betting and trading, with pre-race and in-play markets for both fundamental and technical traders.

Academics, in economics and finance, have long been used horse race betting markets as a proxy for financial market research. Therefore, there is a long history of research in efficient market hypothesis, money management and trading/betting strategies with regard to horse racing.

NOTE - If any links to papers are broken then just Google the paper's title to find an alternate. Papers without links might be found in Google Scholar, JSTOR or Arxiv.

Benter, William. "Computer-based horse race handicapping and wagering systems: A report." Efficiency of racetrack betting markets (1994): 183-198.

Bolton, Ruth N., and Randall G. Chapman. "Searching for positive returns at the track: A multinomial logit model for handicapping horse races." Management Science 32.8 (1986): 1040-1060.

Edelman, David. "A competitive horse-race handicapping algorithm based on analysis of covariance." The economics of gambling (2003): 106.

Edelman, David. "Adapting support vector machine methods for horserace odds prediction." Annals of Operations Research 151.1 (2007): 325-336.

Hausch, Donald B., William T. Ziemba, and Mark Rubinstein. "Efficiency of the market for racetrack betting." Management science 27.12 (1981): 1435-1452.

Lessmann, Stefan, Ming-Chien Sung, and Johnnie EV Johnson. "Identifying winners of competitive events: A SVM-based classification model for horserace prediction." European Journal of Operational Research 196.2 (2009): 569-577.

Lo, Victor SY, and John Bacon-Shone. "A comparison between two models for predicting ordering probabilities in multiple-entry competitions." The Statistician (1994): 317-327.

Rosenbloom, E. S. "A better probability model for the racetrack using Beyer speed numbers." Omega 31.5 (2003): 339-348.

Rosenqvist, Gunnar. "ARBITRAGE AT THE RACETRACK." Contributions to Mathematics, Statistics, Econometrics, and Finance: 381.

More citations will be added in due course. Check back, often.


  1. i humbly believe all you maths geeks ,including yourself suffer from over analysis syndrome ..bringing your "clever" financial models into a horseracing market..basically distorting the whole thing through greed .taking the horse out the equation. wheres the fun in sure thats not how the creators of betfair believed it would go where only machines/algos whatever the hell they are not going down there ..ill keep percieving where i think value is and keep appreciating the living breathing thing called a horse..cheers,

    1. Markets are markets. The should all be looked at as that and no more, be they horse racing or financial. After all, you are trying to make money, no matter which market you are looking at. The fun is in beating the market.

      You can't stand in the way of "progress" and the technological singularity.