tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66041458886924860712024-02-14T20:59:18.533+00:00 Betfair Pro TraderHelping sports traders to achieve their potential or stop losing moneyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger189125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-3283697095014665782018-05-31T09:01:00.001+01:002018-06-08T10:10:17.922+01:00Index
This website was created to educate aspiring sports traders. The content provides insight into the minds of experienced traders and common mistakes for beginners to avoid.
A trait amongst losing traders is laziness, an unwillingness to self-educate, an inability to distinguish between good and bad advice, and the belief that trading is easy and a guarantor of financial success.
Presented Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-81315956731110039642017-05-11T16:07:00.000+01:002019-12-04T12:35:08.928+00:00Why I'm Getting Out of P2P Lending
I had already stopped investing in P2P lending to SMEs (Small to Medium-Size Enterprises) over a year ago. Simply, the return did not outweigh the risk. Unlike bank deposits there is no protection when you invest your money in P2P lending. In shares and their derivatives the return can be quite considerable even though there is a chance you'll lose it all. The percentage return on P2P lending toUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-31868307668904266992017-05-10T11:17:00.000+01:002018-08-31T15:47:42.684+01:00How Science is Taking the Luck out of Gambling
Author of The Perfect Bet, Adam Kucharski traces the scientific
origins of the world's best gambling strategies during a Royal Institution lecture.
Amazon - The Perfect Bet
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-77651862674228434102017-05-10T11:16:00.000+01:002018-08-06T21:56:11.611+01:00A Man for All Markets
A rare post from me these days but one that I have been looking forward to writing. A Man for All Markets is written by Edward O Thorp, a name that most smart traders will know. Written by the man himself, the book covers the entire life of this successful academic, "gambler" and financier. Obviously, I put the word gambler in quotes because Ed Thorp is anything but a gambler.
Using Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-52655587554778288442017-05-08T10:02:00.000+01:002017-05-10T07:49:47.754+01:00Relieving the Stress of Trading
In answer to my previous article, The Search for Edge, Boris (probably not Johnson) left a comment that I felt would be best answered in a dedicated article rather than as a reply in the comments section of the original article.
Last week's article saw me state facetiously that I was loath to publish details of my trading lifestyle, "Primarily because it is so dreary. No poolside selfies fromUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-31914622199609012862017-05-06T09:49:00.001+01:002017-05-06T10:05:41.935+01:00The Search for Edge
I thought I would take another look at the search keywords that have brought people to this website. Sometimes, the keywords remind me of an old article that I reread and decide it needs to be reworked so as to get the point over more succinctly. Other keywords alert me to the need to add new articles. Let's have a look at some of the search keywords that brought people to this website.
My Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-15949854604593066002017-04-29T22:34:00.000+01:002017-04-29T22:34:53.157+01:00Gaming Betfair?
Recently, I was approached by a journalist looking for information and a few quotes. During the conversation, the term "gaming" cropped up. The journalist wanted to know if it was possible to game Betfair. In other words, is it possible to make money on betting markets using non-traditional methods.
What is the traditional method of winning in a betting market? Until the advent of exchanges, Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-8614136525921576842017-04-27T08:38:00.001+01:002022-04-13T12:38:06.860+01:00"Not for ordinary punter"
And so started the review of my second book, Betfair Trading Techniques, on Amazon. That truism was then followed by just two more sentences. "More about programming and APIs. Sorry I didn't like it."
I'm sorry too that the person who had bought my book left the review "Not for ordinary punter". Obviously, they had not understood what they had read in the book. Yes, there is programming. Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-65116192679177332992017-04-16T14:29:00.000+01:002019-09-01T17:24:25.034+01:00A Tale of Two Losers
Recently, I saw two gambling movies. The first was Owning Mahowny, which was recommended to me by "Boris" (not the soon to be future leader of the Free World) after he read my previous article on gambling movies I wrote a few years ago. The other movie was Mississippi Grind. Both movies are about gambling losers though the movies couldn't be any more different as they are a contrast of reality Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-19762013186658973282017-04-15T10:48:00.003+01:002019-09-01T14:53:16.107+01:00Gambling Movies
Previously, I posted an article about my favourite finance related movies. This time I present my favourite gambling movies. Most gambling related movies are based around con artists and very few about the daily grind of professional gambling although this list has a few exceptions. It is understandable that the daily grind doesn't make for a good plot. A con trick plus a few dead bodiesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-76851503904499524532017-04-11T10:16:00.000+01:002017-04-12T08:32:17.713+01:00When Does a Beginner Become a Mug Punter?
We are all learners - the process never ends - but some traders never progress beyond the beginner level, destined never to achieve their expectations or worse, lose a lot of money. Surely from reading posts on the forums all you have to do is "stick with it" or "sign up for the latest course" and all will be well.
For most losing traders, neither option works and just adds to the money Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-53305560182873206842017-04-08T10:02:00.000+01:002018-01-18T18:00:58.240+00:00Too old to trade?
When a commenter leaves an email address at the end of their comment it usually means they want to have a conversation through email. In that case I prevent the comment from being published so that the email address is not shown on my website but I do answer the commenter with an email. Anyone is welcome to leave their email address and I will answer them as soon as I can.
This particular Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-73762782795821872122017-04-05T12:58:00.000+01:002018-01-18T18:02:05.381+00:00Get it Quietly
During the 1990s, whilst playing poker in the now defunct cardroom at London's Regency casino, you would often hear someone calling out, "Get it
quietly!" This was always after someone had joyously announced to the room that they had just won a big pot.
Who were these people telling the room of their good fortune? Beginners, that's who, amazed at winning a large pot
of chips and imagining Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-38965771857856097432017-03-31T13:14:00.000+01:002018-01-18T18:04:36.682+00:00Fund Feedback
My article on Pyckio's sports betting fund elicited much response on this website, Twitter and elsewhere.
Joseph Buchdahl, who runs the sports tipsters proofing site, stopped proofing sportty when he became involved with the company. The old sportty.com website now points to Pyckio.
Buchdahl, author of Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks, and a consultant to Pyckio said in a TweetUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-23127550347811446362017-03-29T07:46:00.000+01:002017-04-03T12:58:00.033+01:00A Sports Hedge Fund?
I was alerted to the creation of a new sports hedge fund by Pyckio. Not for the first time has a company attempted to put their sports trading activities on a similar footing to a hedge fund, Centaur Galileo being the most prominent, in that it soon collapsed.
The most likely reason for the collapse of Centaur was market capacity, with too much fund money being traded in a market such that Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-14855843982291592382017-03-22T08:08:00.000+00:002017-03-31T14:42:10.816+01:00Why bother for meagre returns?
The title of this article results from a comment I made on Twitter, in reply to something said by someone else. Twitter's 140 character limit precludes me from writing a full answer and so I will reply on this website.
The excellent @BettingScams on Twitter wrote, "Think I've lost all patience for stupid punters. If you're thick enough to pay anonymous blokes on twitter for tips, you Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-11815675292439356272017-03-18T09:04:00.000+00:002017-03-18T09:22:49.290+00:00Me and My (Betting) Shadow
I saw a question on Twitter that I often see being asked. The question was, "When I put a big bet on @Betfair_Aus why does a small bet for $14 almost always suddenly appear one tick better than me?"
The answer lies in automated (aka program) trading. As I argue in my book, Betfair Trading Techniques, all sports trading and betting is, in one form or another, arbitrage.
In the case of Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-41335855598081823512017-03-07T15:50:00.000+00:002017-03-07T15:50:01.385+00:00Boosting for Traders
A new article from Sports Trader concerns Adaptive Boosting and provides plenty of detail and references for those wanting to learn more about this particular form of machine learning.
My only query is the application, determining the winner of a horse race. Any approach to this problem falls at the first hurdle because it usually lacks private information.
Any machine learning Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-13743074616587411412017-01-28T08:46:00.000+00:002017-10-11T21:32:15.631+01:00It Doesn't Get Any Easier
If you have read my How to Read a Sports Trading Website article then you will have seen through those vendor articles telling you how easy in-play trading is. Trading tennis in-play is only for syndicates with court-siders plugged into algo-bots. Sitting at home with a delayed video feed will do little more than earn trading profits for the syndicates and subscription profits for the Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-48655787247295899452017-01-14T11:34:00.000+00:002017-02-25T19:44:33.559+00:00The Paradox of Skill
Buchdahl's Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks (pages 137 to 142) describes the paradox of skill, whereby increasing levels of skill within an environment results in luck playing a greater role amongst participants in that environment. This paradox can be applied to both sides of the trading coin; namely traders and the underlying assets they are trading on.
Leicester City's Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-16693487453176369682016-12-31T09:20:00.000+00:002018-01-18T20:07:30.546+00:00Review of 2016
The year was a shock to those who backed the favourites in the two big political events of the year, thus demonstrating that nothing is ever "nailed on". I suggested a hedge position for both events should the non-favourites win, which they did and overall the hedge proved profitable. The world is ever more a chaotic place and year by year those who wish to control us, in all aspects of life, Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-87425623732850132142016-12-18T21:32:00.000+00:002016-12-24T19:04:40.058+00:00Wishing You All A Merry Christmas
I'm going away for a rest. The six months it took to write Betfair Trading Techniques have taken their toll. The short days don't help either. I am looking forward to the solstice.
Wishing you all a Merry Christmas and a Positively Edged New Year.
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-19468004630986763172016-12-17T10:24:00.000+00:002017-01-22T11:36:24.015+00:00The Management Would Like A Word
Oh, what tangled web we weave
When first we practice to deceive!
Marmion - Walter Scott, 1808.
Today, we have access to many fine doctors who prescribe medicines that cure our illnesses. These medicines are manufactured by highly skilled pharmaceutical companies. However, our health system was not always like this.
In the past there were doctors of lesser quality, who not only cured theUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-64113645418853941552016-12-16T20:20:00.000+00:002017-01-04T21:28:09.386+00:00Trader Makes Shock Discovery
A leading trader has made a shock discovery after
16 years of diligent work. The trader announced to the world this
evening that the Martingale system might not be good for your wealth.
Staff at Betfair Pro Trader can confirm that the term "Martingale" has never been used before on the trader's news blog. The research paper, entitled Loss recovery systems,
yet to be published in Nature,Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604145888692486071.post-37793931998371421382016-12-15T19:22:00.000+00:002016-12-24T19:03:50.824+00:00Horse Racing - Citations
The sport of kings. Often the first sport that attracts people onto betting exchanges, horse racing offers many routes into betting and trading, with pre-race and in-play markets for both fundamental and technical traders.
Academics, in economics and finance, have long been used horse race betting markets as a proxy for financial market research. Therefore, there is a long history of Unknownnoreply@blogger.com