Flash Boys

Michael Lewis is a prolific writer on all the dodgy dealings in the financial markets. He has authored Liar's Poker and The Big Short, which I have read and thoroughly recommend.

There is a lot to be learned by sports traders from good writers in the financial world and Michael is certainly one of those writers. His latest offering is Flash Boys, which details the nefarious goings on in High-Frequency Trading (HFT), those who benefit from it and those who fight against it.

The book tells us about how financial trading is now less about knowledge of fundamentals such as the data held in company reports but more about market structure. Knowledge of how the many electronic exchanges are linked and who is buying and selling which stocks before they are traded allows high-frequency traders to gain an advantage. It's as though you could tap into Patrick Veitch's (see Predicting the Starting Price is NOT Possible (for us mortals)) mind to ascertain which horse he is going to perform a coup on and at what odds he has determined are fair. And, before he can get on the phone to his agents to place bets across the country, you can get online to the exchanges and back the horse all the way down to fair odds.

Naturally, that would make Patrick very angry and his ability to trade profitably would be over. And yet, that is what happens in the financial markets everyday. From individuals wanting to play the market for a few hundred shares to the big funds wanting to trades hundreds of thousands of shares, the HFT firms get wind of this activity in advance and manipulate the market to make people pay more to buy and expect less when selling.

How is all this achieved? Again, it is the 'rocket scientists' at work. Since floor trading was superseded by electronic exchanges the market has fragmented. There are many more exchanges and big banks have their own private exchanges too called Dark Pools (see Dark Pools: The rise of A.I. trading machines and the looming threat to Wall Street). There is a time lag between each of these exchanges (depending on how far you are from each of them) as the fibre optic cable linking you to any one exchange might take a circuitous route.

To make a big trade means that you have to split an order up and spread it across many exchanges to find enough buyers or sellers. Of course, the exchange closest to your servers is going to get your first order but then that alerts the high-frequency traders so they cancel their offers on other exchanges and re-offer at a higher or lower price accordingly. The HFT firms do this to extort (in some people minds) a middleman fee from every trade. Instead of one entity buying from another, the HFT firms interject themselves and buy what is wanted from the seller and sell it to the buyer at an inflated price.

From analysts calculating fair value for a stock we now have computer programmers building bots using speed and cunning to extract fractions of a penny, many thousands of times a second. As they say, "Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves." This book is a good read on taking advantage of market micro-structure. Something for the bot building sports trader to learn from.

Amazon - Flash Boys

Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win

Steven Skiena of Stony Brook University has a lifelong passion for the sport of Jai Alai, a ball game from the Basque region of Spain. Akin to squash, the game is played with baskets attached to the hand rather than with racquets held by the hand. The book details Steven's building of a model for the game of Jai Alai with which he used for betting. The book explains the rules of Jai Alai and how betting is incorporated into the game. It is important to understand how betting and a sport's rules are related, which can reveal quirks that can be utilised for arbitrage.

In the following chapters Steven builds a Monte Carlo simulation of Jai Alai so that he can test his theories about the likelihood of any one particular player in a matchup winning the event. With 8 players vying to be the best there is an advantage in being one of the first two paired players to play. Steven's simulation proves this hypothesis. Using available player ratings Steven builds a model for each player and for the payoffs for various kinds of Pari-Mutuel bets. He then goes on to build an automated betting system, which was rather sophisticated for its time. Finally, Steven discusses how to approach other sports and gambling games using his methodology.

All-in-all this book is a fascinating read. Some find it hard going but I can appreciate all the hard work that Steven has put into mastering modelling a sport and betting on it. If you want to know what it takes to model a sport and build a bot to place bets then you need this book at hand. You won't learn how to program specifically for your requirements and this book was written before Betfair took off. However, you will learn what it takes to dedicate yourself to a related task.

Amazon - Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win