The Cassini Division

The US presidential election reminds me of Monty Python's Upper Class Twit of the Year, leaving Americans with the unenviable task of choosing the best from a bunch of idiots.

Hillary Clinton wanting the job so badly should immediately preclude her from the job, as Billy Connolly might say. Trump seems never to have wanted the job in the first place and is doing his best to lose. Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party appears mentally unstable with a whole portfolio of video oddities. I don't know anything about the US Green Party, I just naturally assume it's full of loonies like the UK version. Maybe the ballot papers should have another option: "No President for the Next Four Years". The electorate might get to like that and will be chanting "Four more years!" in 2020.

Cassini, the old master at Green All Over has talked (and talked) the value out of a Clinton victory in next month's US presidential election. Given Cassini's track record with politics and economics it might be wise to see if there is any value remaining in Trump, although the candidate is doing his best to negate it.

Ahead of last June's Brexit vote Cassini was certain of the Remoaners Remainers gaining victory but for some inexplicable reason he didn't bet his house on it.  Maybe his private wire (a la Kelly Criterion) was faulty in respect of that dead cert. Fortunately, the infinite wisdom of the crowd prevailed at the prospect of the UK luring businesses from around the world with a corporate tax policy free of the shackles of the EU.

Before the first Brexit votes had been counted, the betting and financial markets had priced in the short-sighted view of the Establishment, for whom change and revolution are to be avoided. It's odd that lefty radicals in their dotage would hitch themselves to that wagon but this is not a political website so we won't go down that cul-de-sac.

A wise move would have been to buy a fall in Sterling and wait for the Sunderland vote, the first to be announced. Sunderland was very much a barometer for the rest of the country and was widely expected to vote for remaining. If the vote was to remain then there wouldn't have been much more upside in Sterling as the markets had been rising for a couple of days in anticipation of such a result. A bet for Sterling to fall could have been closed out for a small loss in that case. However, a vote to leave would be a different matter, as has been proven. 

British exporters can't believe their luck with the falling value of Sterling and when Ireland (a country sick and tired of being told how to run its taxation policy by the EU) sees the UK luring multinationals away from the Emerald Isle then Ireland will consider abandoning the sinking SS Merkel too. By SS I obviously mean Steam Ship. Honest.

With Clinton regarded as Wall Street's man (sic) because her husband never had his trousers on long enough whilst in the White House, it might be prudent to bet on a fall in the dollar or the S&P 500 rather than laying Hillary (excuse me whilst I heave). Even a hedge trade on a Clinton win and a dollar/index fall for the bonus arbitrageurs might at best win the bonus or better, a handsome slice of profit. I am sure hedge funds everywhere are doing just this, as they did prior to the Brexit vote.

No comments:

Post a Comment