I have written a simple RiskSimulator for level stakes betting. The application permits up to 100,000 bets to be simulated with graphical outputs. The user enters fair and bookmaker/exchange odds, a Monte Carlo simulation handles the rest. When the simulation is complete the yield, risk of no profit and risk of ruin are output. Also, two charts are output; a time series progression for the bankroll and a histogram of variance.

Although using standard statistical methods such as the binomial distribution will provide more accurate results, the simulator provides a more easy to understand visual representation. Also, a binomial distribution is based on an infinite number of trials. As nobody bets an infinite number of times a Monte Carlo simulation can show the user the wide variation between what is expected mathematically and what may happen in reality.

Above, we see that the distribution of results in the histogram is not a smooth curve (as one would expect from a binomial distribution) even for 100,000 trials. Future work will include a StakingSimulator for users to investigate the worth of various staking systems, including level stakes, proportional stakes, Kelly Criterion and guaranteed losers such as Martingale and Fibonacci.